Confirmation Bias

Confirmation Bias

Presented at County Line Brethren Church on August 16, 2009.
Year B, Proper 15
Scripture passages: Ephesians 5:15-20 & John 6:35, 41-51

I like to be comfortable. I like my house somewhere between 68-75 degrees Fahrenheit. I like my eggs fried 'over medium.' I like blue skies with a few pretty clouds to provide some contrast. I enjoy nature, as long as it is outside my house. We had a skunk smell recently in our house and it was not pleasant. I enjoy reading during my lunch break. I feel more comfortable when I know what the rules are at work and at home. When I sense that Beth or my boss at work has changed the rules, I become uncomfortable. When someone challenges my status quo, I become uncomfortable. Now, as I have said before, I rather enjoy stirring up other people's status quo: challenging what they believe, asking why they do what they do, or testing their logic. I enjoy a healthy, spirited and respectful debate. However, when the tables are turned, and I am the on one the proverbial 'hot seat' I do a lot of squirming. I become very uncomfortable.

Beth and I have been going to the Fitness Forum for about a year and a half. I feel healthier. I feel stronger. My clothes fit a little better. But, up until recently, I have not lost a lot of weight. Now I know some of the comforting quips that have helped me feel better, despite not having lost much weight. Some of my friends might say that I am turning my fat into muscle. I suppose that is true – to a point. Some might suggest the goal should not be weight loss, but fitness, and that I have improved my physical fitness. I suppose that is true also – to a point. {at this point in the sermon, I want to tease you with the phrase, “confirmation bias.” I will come back to it later. I have just given you an example of “confirmation bias.”} The problem is that I really would like to lose some weight. I keep sweating. I keep pumping that iron. I keep jogging. By the way, I am going to jog again in the 5K Blueberry Stomp, and I am on track for significantly reducing my time this year. I will also do my fundraiser for the Neighborhood Center and hope to have information for you next week. I keep spending 7-8 hours a week in this endeavor, with little to show for it. I have been burning up to 3,000 calories a week!! – And I have only lost a few pounds. And yet, I keep going to the gym and exercising.

Then in the mail comes my weekly edition of TIME magazine. The headline reads, “The Myth About Exercise.” That got my attention.
The basic problem is that while it's true that exercise burns calories and that you must burn calories to lose weight, exercise has another effect: it can stimulate hunger. That causes us to eat more, which in turn can negate the weight-loss benefits we just accrued. Exercise, in other words, isn't necessarily helping us lose weight. It may even be making it harder.
(TIME, 8-17-2009, p. 42f.)

Earlier this week, I jogged over 3 miles, and promptly came home and had some ice cream. I was hungry. The TIME article talks about people like me who stop off at Starbucks after burning 200-300 calories and having a half a muffin. While that sounds like a great program to me, the doctors in the article were not impressed.

Some of the researchers are advocating that “very frequent, low-level physical activity may actually work better for us than the occasional bouts of exercise you get as a gym rat.” (Ibid)

In short, it's what you eat, not how hard you try to work it off, that matters more in losing weight. You should exercise to improve your health, but be warned: fiery spurts of vigorous exercise could lead to weight gain. I love how exercise makes me feel, but tomorrow I might skip the Versa-Climber – and skip the blueberry bar that is my usual postexercise reward.
(Ibid)

I'll be honest with you. That information makes me uncomfortable. I enjoy going out to Fitness Forum. I enjoy exercising. I enjoy the routine. And I'm still planning on jogging in the Blueberry Stomp. However, this information will probably be better received by Beth. She does not particularly enjoy exercising. But both of us do enjoy a leisurely bike ride in the evening. Which is just what this article is suggesting, and to do it more frequently.

I rather enjoy the phrase, “don't confuse me with the facts, my mind's made up.” I would rather believe what confirms my beliefs, instead of considering the facts. I would rather believe that I am transforming my fat into rock solid muscle. I would rather believe that I am getting into great physical shape. I would rather believe those things than consider solid scientific research that challenges me and makes me uncomfortable. That, is a type of confirmation bias.

In 1897, Tolstoy wrote:
“I know that most men, including those at ease with problems of the greatest complexity, can seldom accept the simplest and most obvious truth if it be such as would oblige them to admit the falsity of conclusions which they have proudly taught to others, and which they have woven, thread by thread, into the fabrics of their life. ”

A related Tolstoy quote is:
“The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he knows already, without a shadow of doubt, what is laid before him.

Confirmation bias is demonstrated as we consider new information that may conflict with our present beliefs and opinions. It matters not whether one is Republican or Democrat, pro-life or pro-choice, for the war or against the war, for health care reform or against health care reform. What tends to happen is that if the new information contradicts what I believe, then I will find a way to dismiss it. If the new information supports what I believe, then I will quote it and refer to it (if only in my own mind), in order to support my belief – even if the new information is suspect or faulty in some way.

It is also my impression that as Christians, being human in every aspect, we tend to prefer our comfortable beliefs and practices, even when presented with evidence to the contrary. For centuries, the church believed that earth was flat and punished those who thought differently. Those of us who have been raised in the context of Western ideas influenced by individualism and democracy find it odd that the Bible endorses neither of these values, while continuing to assert that these are Christian values. Those who were raised under the teaching of Reformed mentors and theologians (“once saved, always saved”) will understandably be influenced by their own “confirmation bias” so as to find an explanation, however weak, for any scripture passages which speak contrary to that belief. Likewise those who were raised under the teaching of Armenian mentors and theologians (those who believe it is possible to lose one’s salvation) will understandably be influenced by their own “confirmation bias” so as to find an explanation, however weak, for any scripture passages which speak contrary to that belief.

Those of us who have been brought up in the Brethren Church have grown fond of the Three-Fold Communion Service, oftentimes find other expressions of communion unfulfilling, particularly if it involves only the bread and cup and especially if it is done ritualistically every Sunday. Which is kind of odd, since the New Testament, if it says anything about this, it says that “On the first day of the week we came together to break bread.” And most Brethren churches only have communion twice a year – because it is such a big production.

So, as we now explore the bizarre and powerful words of Jesus in John 6, let us consider ourselves as entrenched in our own beliefs. We have our own “confirmation bias.” We tend to find evidence, however weak, to support our own beliefs.

In John 6, Jesus said,

All that the Father gives me will come to me, and whoever comes to me I will never drive away.
And this is the will of him who sent me, that I shall lose none of all that he has given me, but raise them up at the last day.
No one can come to me unless drawn by the Father who sent me; and I will raise that person up on the last day.

We shall not say that this drawing is coercive in any way. As Augustine says that God draws, “'not by imposing necessity' but by grace enabling the 'inner palate' of the soul to find its greatest 'pleasure' and 'delight' in partaking the truth.” Calvin says, “As far as the manner of drawing goes, it is not violent, so as to compel us by an external force; but yet it is an effectual movement of the Holy Spirit, turning us from being unwilling and reluctant into willing.” (Feasting on the Word, Year B, Volume 3, p. 336)

And so we enter into the discussion of Calvinism vs. Armenianism.

When I was your pastor many years ago, I began preaching through the book of Romans. What I remember is that everything was groovy up through chapter 8. But after Romans, chapter 8, comes Romans, chapter 9. In that chapter is this passage:

What then are we to say? Is there injustice on God’s part? By no means! For he says to Moses,
‘I will have mercy on whom I have mercy,
and I will have compassion on whom I have compassion.’
So it depends not on human will or exertion, but on God who shows mercy. For the scripture says to Pharaoh, ‘I have raised you up for the very purpose of showing my power in you, so that my name may be proclaimed in all the earth.’ So then he has mercy on whomsoever he chooses, and he hardens the heart of whomsoever he chooses. (NRSV)

What I recall is that when I came to that passage, our journey through Romans was altered. You see, I grew up in the Brethren Church and was carefully taught in seminary the finer points of Armenianism – primarily that we did NOT believe in “once saved, always saved.” So, here I was, a few years out of seminary and I had no way to reconcile this passage with my doctrine. My own “confirmation bias” was being challenged. I did not know what to do. To be honest with you, I cannot remember exactly what I did do. But I can tell you what I did NOT do. I did not convert to Calvinism, at least at that time. Nevertheless, my internal dissonance was strong enough for me to remember that, even today.

Let it be known that the scripture here in John 6 speaks clearly about God quickening the hearts of those he has chosen. And let it be known that God has given those he has chosen over to the care of our risen Lord Jesus, the Christ. And let it be known that our precious Jesus will not lose any thus entrusted to his care.

So, let come face to face with own “confirmation bias” as we struggle together to accept this dear and precious promise, assuring us of Jesus’ constant and abiding commitment to us as his children.


We also note in this passage that Jesus said, “I am the bread that came down from heaven.” My hope is that you may be starting to catch a glimpse of the dissonance that the crowd was experiencing. I can hear the whispers and the gasps. I can see the bewilderment and the shock on the faces of the people. Please understand that they are utterly confused. They said to one another,
"Is not this Jesus, the son of Joseph, whose father and mother we know? How can he now say, 'I have come down from heaven'?"
They are locked in their own confirmation bias. They are locked in their own preconceived notions and beliefs. They know Joseph and Mary, Jesus' parents?!?! Notice that they did not contend with the idea of Jesus being the bread of life. They did however contend with Jesus' assertion that he came from heaven. They had their idea of who Jesus was (the son of Joseph and Mary). Jesus clarifies in this passage that the reason that they were locked in this perception, this “confirmation bias,” is because their spiritual eyes had not yet been opened to see who Jesus really was.

In this passage, Jesus does what he often does; Jesus creates dissonance between who we THINK Jesus is and who he REALLY is. This is one of the real dangers for us – that we become locked in our own perceptions of who Jesus is. When this happens, we only become more entrenched in our own misconception about Jesus and less able to see what there is yet to learn about him.

Let me get personal for a moment. I have been through many things in my life. I have walked my own way, to my own detriment at times. There have been times when I have been so low and have felt like I was down for the count. There have been times I have been sorely tempted and times when I have fallen hard. There have been times that I even had thoughts of suicide. There have been times of great distress and sadness. There have been times of intense turmoil in our marriage.

My own “confirmation bias” is that during those times, I was NOT able to get it together. I was NOT able to save myself. I am now convinced that Jesus had sealed me as his own, and would not, and will never let me go. Even though I walk through the valley of the shadow of death, I will not be let go by the powerful grip of his love. I am convinced that I am not only unable to save myself, but I am unable to keep myself saved. And so, I am completely reliant upon my Lord for both the saving and the keeping.

And so we come to understand that no one can come to Jesus unless God enlightens them, so as to draw them. Furthermore, no one can remain in his love and grace unless He keep them.

Now, in order to avoid completely alienating those of you who hold dearly your Armenian persuasion, allow me to say that there is an element of choice, but we shall leave that for another sermon.

Oh, and by the way, I am trying to recognize my own “confirmation bias” as it relates to my attempts to lose weight and my exercise routine. I am trying to consider the facts, even if it grates against my misconceptions. So, because I read the article on exercise, I took a break while writing the sermon to ride my bike to the end of the road and back. Then I had a bag of popcorn to reward myself. I still struggle with losing weight.


Let us pray.
Kind Heavenly Father, I pray that you will shed light on whatever ideas we harbor about you that are less than completely accurate. Draw us into a fuller communion with you as you open our eyes to see you as you are.
Amen.